Sberbank Sees Russian Legal Crypto Trading Hitting $46B in Year One

Key Takeaways

Russia Regulated Crypto Trading To Reach $46.43 billion During First Year

Russian analyst has begun estimating the results of the legalization of crypto trading after the Bank of Russia passed a draft regulation allowing investors to purchase crypto assets legally through brokers, effective September 1.

Sberbank Deputy Chairman of the Executive Board Anatoly Popov stressed that expectations for trading volumes during the first year of this new regime were conservative, as the bank projects that only a small part of the crypto activity would move to regulated brokers.

Nonetheless, Sberbank expects regulated trading to reach at least 4 trillion rubles ($46.43 billion) during the first year, and slowly increase to around 7.5 trillion rubles ($87.06 billion) by 2029, as investors migrate to the official exchange system.

“According to Finance Ministry data as of February, the daily volume of cryptocurrency transactions in Russia is around 50 billion rubles, or roughly 18 trillion rubles a year. SberCIB Investment Research analysts have a fairly conservative estimate: in the first year after legalization, around 20% of this volume, or 3.5-4 trillion rubles a year, will be traded on exchanges. This figure could rise to 4.75-5.25 trillion rubles by 2028 and to 7.5 trillion rubles by 2029,” Popov told TASS.

One of the key limiters of these figures, apart from the continued use of unregistered cryptocurrency exchange services, is the limit the law puts on crypto investments and the limited options available through official channels, which might not cater to some investors.

Non-qualified investors can only purchase up to 300,000 rubles (about $3,800) in crypto per year through a single licensed intermediary, after a risk awareness test, a limit justified by the Bank of Russia. Even as the bank recently eased the requirements to become a qualified investor, these are limited to investing up to 3 million rubles (about $38,000), reducing their ability to trade large volumes.

Also, only Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Tether (USDT) have the Bank of Russia’s approval for trading on official Russian exchanges, leaving other relevant altcoins outside. Exchanges can register by July 1, 2027, after a transition period.