Bitcoin Price Eyes $96.7K as ETF Demand and Spot Volume Rise

Bitcoin Price Clears Key Cost Bases as $14B Options Expiry Hits

Bitcoin’s latest rally is beginning to look different from the short-lived rebounds that defined much of 2026.

The largest crypto asset by market cap has moved back above several important investor cost bases after a roughly $10,000 advance over the 10 days. More importantly, holders are not rushing to sell into the recovery.

Onchain data from Glassnode shows that bitcoin’s price never closed below its Realized Price during the downturn. The percentage of supply held in profit fell to levels comparable with 2022, yet Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) remained positive.

That combination suggests the market suffered substantial stress without reaching the capitulation conditions seen in previous crypto winters.

$96,700 Emerges as Bitcoin’s Next Major Test

The next challenge is overhead supply.

A significant concentration of long-term-holder coins sits around $84,000 to $85,000, creating a natural area where investors may consider taking profits as bitcoin’s price moves through their cost basis.

Beyond that zone, the mean MVRV price near $96,700 stands out as the next major onchain resistance level.

The encouraging signal is that profit realization remains subdued. Even with almost all short-term holders now back in profit, selling remains at only a fraction of the levels recorded around the 2024 and 2025 market peaks.

Spot demand is also improving. Trading volume has more than doubled from its August low, while ETF buying has strengthened alongside rising prices and broader activity across multiple exchanges.

That matters because rallies backed by spot buying tend to carry a different risk profile from moves dominated by derivatives leverage.

$14 Billion Bitcoin Options Expiry Resets the Derivatives Map

The immediate market test comes from one of the largest derivatives events of the quarter.

Around 167,000 Bitcoin options contracts, carrying roughly $14.04 billion in notional value, expire on Sept. 25, according to Greeks.live. The contracts have a put-call ratio of 0.87 and a maximum-pain level of $79,000.

The expiry represents roughly 32% of total bitcoin options open interest.

Another 789,000 ether options worth around $2.1 billion are also expiring, representing about 40% of ETH options open interest.

Dealer positioning has been heavily concentrated around $84,000 ahead of settlement. After expiry, gamma exposure is expected to shift higher, with greater concentration above $90,000.

Options positioning could therefore amplify moves between current levels and roughly $92,000, while potentially creating more resistance as bitcoin’s price approaches $95,000.

Spot Demand Matters More Than Leverage From Here

The broader crypto market is also participating in the recovery, with altcoins rising across the board. Yet traders have added relatively little leverage compared with the scale of the move, another potentially constructive sign.

Implied volatility has recovered from last week but remains relatively contained. Greeks.live also noted that much of the activity around expiry has involved traders rolling positions rather than making aggressive directional bets.

That leaves bitcoin’s price at an important transition point.

The $84,000-$85,000 supply zone is being challenged, profit-taking remains controlled, and institutional demand is improving. If spot and ETF buying continue absorbing supply, then the market’s attention could increasingly shift from the mid-$80,000 range toward $90,000, $95,000, and ultimately the $96,700 MVRV level.

The options expiry may create short-term noise. The more important question is whether real demand remains after it clears.